The southwest monsoon has covered the entire country six days earlier than normal despite advancing slowly in mid-June, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday.
“The southwest monsoon has advanced further into the remaining parts of Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab today. Thus, it covered the entire country on July 2, 2024, instead of the normal date of July 8,” the IMD said in a statement.
The monsoon arrived in Kerala and the northeast region on May 30, two and six days earlier than usual.
It moved smoothly into Maharashtra but lost momentum in between, extending the rainy season in West Bengal, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, and worsening the impact of a scorching heatwave in northwest India.
The country recorded 16 days of below-normal rainfall activity from June 11 to 27, resulting in below-normal overall rainfall in June, with 147.2 mm of rain against a normal of 165.3 mm for the month, the seventh lowest since 2001.
June rainfall accounts for 15 percent of the total rainfall of 87 cm recorded during the four-month monsoon season in the country.
The southwest monsoon usually begins in Kerala on June 1 and covers the entire country by July 8. It starts withdrawing from northwest India around September 17 and withdraws completely by October 15. IMD data shows that this is the third consecutive year when the monsoon has covered the entire country earlier than expected. Monsoon rains covered the entire country on July 2 in both 2022 and 2021. Since 2011, the monsoon has covered the country earlier than the usual date seven times.
Last year, the monsoon arrived in Kerala on June 8, seven days later than usual, and covered the entire country on July 2, six days earlier. The monsoon began to withdraw in western Rajasthan on September 25, eight days late.
The IMD said on Tuesday that monsoon will remain active over northwest, east and northeast India for the next four to five days.
Isolated very heavy rains are expected over Bihar, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura between July 2 and 6. Isolated very heavy rains are very likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya between July 5 and 6.
Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, parts of Gujarat and coastal Karnataka are likely to experience some spells of very heavy rainfall during this period, the Met Office said.
The meteorological department said on Monday that India may experience above-normal rainfall in July, with heavy rains likely to lead to flooding in western Himalayan states and river basins in central parts of the country.
Northeastern states are already grappling with severe flooding. The flood situation in Assam remains critical, with over 671,000 people affected across 20 districts in the second wave of floods this year. Heavy rains in Manipur and Mizoram have pushed rivers to alert levels and triggered landslides.
In 2023, devastating floods occurred in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand in July and August, and on the Teesta River in the eastern Himalayas in October, despite below-average rainfall.
The IMD had earlier forecast above-normal rainfall during the 2024 monsoon season in India, with accumulated rainfall estimated at 106 per cent of the long-period average of 87 cm.
However, the normal accumulation of rainfall in the country during the monsoon season does not imply a uniform spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall.
The Indian monsoon is characterized by inherent fluctuations and changes that occur over time due to various natural factors. This is called natural variability. However, research shows that climate change is making the monsoon more variable. Greater variability means more extreme weather conditions and periods of drought.
According to the IMD, below normal rainfall is expected over northeast India throughout the season, normal in northwest India and above normal in central and southern peninsular regions of the country.
India’s central monsoon zone, which covers most of the country’s rain-fed agricultural areas, is forecast to receive above-normal rainfall this season, the Met Office said.
The monsoon is critical to India’s agricultural landscape, with 52 percent of the net cultivated area dependent on it. The primary rain harvesting system is also crucial for replenishing reservoirs, which are essential for supplying drinking water and generating power across the country.
June and July are considered the most important monsoon months for agriculture as most of the sowing of Kharif crops takes place during this period.
IMD officials have said La Niña conditions could set in by August.
El Niño, the periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean, is associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India. La Niña, the antithesis of El Niño, causes abundant rainfall during the monsoon season. PTI GVS GVS KVK KVK
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