On his first visit to Europe in five years, Chinese President Xi Jinping appears determined to seize opportunities to loosen the continent’s ties with the United States and forge a world free of American dominance.
The Chinese leader has chosen three countries to visit – France, Serbia and Hungary – that, to varying degrees, view the United States’ postwar world order with suspicion, see China as a necessary counterweight and are eager to strengthen ties. economical.
At a time of tensions with much of Europe (over China’s “unlimited” acceptance of Russia despite the war in Ukraine, its surveillance state and its apparent espionage activities that led to the recent arrest in Germany of four people ), Xi, who arrives in France on Sunday and wants to demonstrate China’s growing influence on the continent and seek a pragmatic approach.
For Europe, the visit will test its delicate balancing act between China and the United States, and will no doubt be seen in Washington as a none-too-subtle effort by Xi to divide Western allies.
It has timed its arrival at its second stop, Serbia, to coincide with the 25th anniversary of the deadly NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade during the Kosovo war. That mistaken attack on May 7, 1999, for which the White House apologized, killed three Chinese journalists and sparked angry protests around the US embassy in Beijing.
“For Xi, being in Belgrade is a very economical way of asking whether the United States really takes international law seriously,” said Janka Oertel, director of the Asia program at the European Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin, “and saying What “Is NATO overreach a problem for other countries?”
The Chinese government has continued to commemorate the Belgrade attack, using it as an occasion to denounce what it considers Western hypocrisy and intimidation.
“The United States always sees itself as the leader – or hegemon – of the world, so China is a competitor or adversary that challenges its hegemony,” said Tu Xinquan, dean of a trade institute at the University of Economics and Economics. International Business. in Beijing. “The European Union does not have a hegemonic mentality.”
The official doctrine of the 27-member European Union defines China as “a partner for cooperation, an economic competitor and a systemic rival.” If this seems complicated, and perhaps contradictory, it is because the continent is torn between how to balance economic opportunities in China with national security risk, cybersecurity risk and economic risk to various industries.
In March, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told reporters that the European formula was unworkable. “It’s like driving to an intersection and finding the red, yellow and green lights on at the same time. How can you continue driving?
Now, Xi would like to turn the traffic light green.
To that end, Xi’s first and most important stop will be France, whose president, Emmanuel Macron, has often made the Gaullist argument that Europe “should never be a vassal of the United States,” as he did last month in a speech at the Sorbonne. The French leader insists that the survival of the European Union depends on “strategic autonomy.” and develop military resilience to become a “European power”. He rejects the notion of “equidistance” between China and the United States (France is one of the United States’ oldest allies) but wants to keep his options open.
All of this is music to Mr. Xi’s ears.
“Macron is trying to create a third way in the current global chaos,” said Philippe Le Corre, a leading French expert on relations with China. “He is trying to maintain a fine line between the two major superpowers.”
Just over a year ago, Macron entertained himself extensively during a visit to China that ended with a Sino-French declaration of a “global strategic partnership.” The French leader echoed the Chinese lexicon of a “multipolar” world, free of “blocs” and the “Cold War mentality.”
Now, in anticipation of Xi’s visit, China has praised France as a great power and expressed hopes that its ties “will always be at the forefront of China’s relations with Western countries,” in the words of Ambassador Lu Shaye. of China in France. , in the People’s Daily.
Macron, who recently warned that “our Europe is mortal” and will only be saved if it can become “sovereign,” will host a state dinner in Paris for Xi on Monday before, in a personal touch, welcoming him. A favorite childhood place in the Pyrenees.
The chemistry between the two men seems to reside essentially in a shared vision that the postwar order is moribund and must be replaced by a new architecture that takes into account changes in power. The fact that Xi is almost certainly the most repressive and authoritarian leader in China’s recent history, and that China’s military threats to Taiwan have intensified, has not come between the two leaders.
In the past six months, Macron has visited India and Brazil in an effort to put France in a foothold between the BRICS group of developing countries, which includes China, and Western powers. At a time of growing tension between the “Global South” and Western powers, he sees France as a bridge.
From France, Xi will move to the warm embrace of Serbia, where China is the second-largest trading partner, and Hungary, where its prime minister, Viktor Orban, has backed massive Chinese investments and taken advantage of his country’s position as the European Union. member to dilute criticism of China. Both countries resist American power.
Beyond these two friends of China, there are, however, serious European differences with Beijing, whose economy was roughly the same size, measured in dollars, as that of the European Union when Xi last visited in 2019. China’s economy China now accounts for about 15 percent. larger.
Last fall, the European Union opened an investigation into whether electric vehicles made in China benefited from unfair subsidies, and a decision is expected this summer. That has caused tensions with Beijing and with Germany, whose presence in the Chinese car market eclipses that of other European countries. China accounts for at least half of Volkswagen’s annual profits.
German manufacturers, with plants in China, fear that any imposition of European tariffs could affect their own exports from China, as well as provoke retaliation.
European Union Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will join talks in Paris with Xi. Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany, whose relations with Macron have been strained, dined with the French president in Paris this week. All of this is clearly part of an attempt to forge a united European front.
That, however, is always difficult to achieve.
Anger toward Russia in Europe is greatest in states on the front line with Russia, such as Poland and the Baltic States. Perhaps they are the most attached to the alliance with the United States that Macron wants to compensate with the construction of a sovereign Europe. They are also the most cautious of China, which has never condemned Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Macron, like Scholz during a visit to China last month, believes Chinese influence in ending the war in Ukraine is essential. Only Beijing, according to the French analysis, can put real pressure on President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who will be sworn in for a fifth term during Xi’s European visit.
The problem, as it was last year during Macron’s visit to Beijing, is that China has shown little or no inclination to do so. In fact, Xi is scheduled to host Putin in China later this month.
“It is difficult to imagine another discussion about Ukraine,” François Godement, special adviser and resident fellow at the Institut Montaigne in Paris, said of the talks between Macron and Xi. “Those dice have been rolled.”
Still, there is little doubt that Macron will try again to win Xi’s support ahead of a peace conference on Ukraine in Switzerland in mid-June.
On a deeper level, it seems certain that Macron will try to use Xi’s visit to promote an agenda that ensures Europe’s relevance in the coming decades. He fears that the United States could re-elect former President Donald J. Trump in November, with unpredictable consequences.
Mr. Wang, Chinese Foreign Minister, has said: “As long as China and Europe unite, there will be no bloc confrontation, the world will not fall apart, and there will be no new Cold War.”
For all the fundamental differences in governance between China’s one-party state and Western liberal democracy, the leaders of the three European countries Xi has decided to visit appear to embrace that Chinese statement.
The report was contributed by Olivia Wang in Hong Kong, Keith Bradsher in Beijing, Christopher S. Schuetze and Melissa Eddy in Berlin, and Ségolène Le Stradic in Paris.