Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, is known as a man who likes to stall for time and postpone big decisions. But he may not be able to do it for much longer.
Domestically, its far-right coalition partners threaten to dissolve the government if it agrees to a ceasefire and does not try to expel Hamas from Rafah in southern Gaza.
Militarily, the strategic logic is to complete the dismantling of Hamas by taking Rafah and controlling the border with Egypt. But diplomatically, his allies, especially the United States, are pressuring him to agree to a ceasefire and skip Rafah and the potential civilian casualties that a large-scale operation would cause.
So Netanyahu is now negotiating and maneuvering on several fronts at once, all of which have a significant effect on the conduct of the war and on his own future as prime minister.
His recent warnings to Palestinians in parts of Rafah to move to areas that Israel has designated as safe, followed on Monday night by the Israeli army’s seizure of the Gaza side of the Egyptian border, were a signal to his far-right governing coalition, for Hamas and for the Biden administration that would continue to prioritize Israel’s security interests. More importantly, Israel’s smaller war cabinet, which includes senior opposition figures, backed those decisions.
The seizure of the Rafah crossing into Egypt, to try to complete Israel’s security control of Gaza’s borders, has, for now, avoided a controversial, large-scale military operation in Rafah itself, which is filled with displaced civilians. It may indicate that Israel is finally preparing to agree to at least a temporary ceasefire in Gaza, even as the outcome of those negotiations remains uncertain.
“Netanyahu is being pulled in several directions,” and pressure is mounting on him to respond, said Daniel C. Kurtzer, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel now at Princeton.
The most important is Netanyahu’s desire to avoid new elections, which could mean a loss of power and a renewal of the various legal proceedings against him. “Political survival always comes first in Netanyahu’s calculations,” Kurtzer said.
Then there are competing pressures on him from “extremists in his own coalition who want to continue the war,” he said, and from hostage families, who want the government to prioritize a ceasefire and the release of more captured people. in Israel during the Hamas-led attacks on October 7.
Externally, the pressure is coming from Biden administration officials and some in Congress “who are losing patience over the humanitarian situation,” he noted. They want a ceasefire and oppose a major attack on Rafah. Finally, there is “the real and continuing threat of escalation, especially from Hezbollah,” she said.
Here’s a closer look at the political, military and diplomatic concerns Netanyahu faces as he weighs his next steps.
Policy
Netanyahu is desperate to hold together his governing coalition, which has 64 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, or Parliament, a narrow majority.
His far-right partners, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, together control 14 seats, and have vowed to leave the government if the prime minister makes too many concessions and agrees to a ceasefire in Gaza, leaving Hamas to claim victory. . They have insisted, as has Netanyahu, that the military will advance towards Rafah.
Gadi Eisenkot, a former general and opposition member of the war cabinet, accused the two men of “political blackmail” and hindering the return of at least some hostages.
But a new election would almost certainly produce a new coalition without Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, so Netanyahu has some room for maneuver.
Agreeing to a staged form of temporary ceasefire, as proposed in current negotiations, could allow Israel to deal with what it says are the four Hamas battalions in Rafah and under its command at a much slower pace, for many weeks. , especially now that the Gaza Strip along the border with Egypt has been taken.
It would also bring home more hostages, not all, but some of the most vulnerable, as well as some who are dead and could be buried by their families. That could help diminish anti-government demonstrations often led by hostage families.
It would also go some way to pacifying President Biden, who could claim a diplomatic victory with a ceasefire, which would also allow much more humanitarian aid to flow into Gaza, allow more civilians to move to safer areas and even to the north. . after they are controlled by Israeli troops, and prevent a large-scale attack on Rafah.
“Netanyahu is in no rush to end the war,” said Daniel Levy, a former Israeli negotiator who now heads the US/Middle East Project, a nonprofit policy institute. “He does not want a ceasefire agreement that threatens his coalition or his ability to continue the war after a pause. He wants to prolong everything, because once the war is over, what is the excuse for not holding new elections?
Military
Israeli military officials and analysts emphasize that cutting off the smuggling of weapons and equipment from Egypt through the tunnels beneath Rafah is strategically more important to Israel than the Hamas fighters remaining in Rafah.
Despite Egyptian denials of extensive smuggling into Gaza, Israeli officials believe that much of the extraordinary arsenal and construction materials that Hamas amassed in Gaza arrived through tunnels from Egypt.
“If we end the war without blocking the tunnels, we would allow Hamas or any other terrorist organization in the Strip to rebuild their military capabilities,” said Kobi Michael of the Institute for National Security Studies, a research group in Tel Aviv.
Nitzan Nuriel, a reserve brigadier general and former director of the counterterrorism office of Israel’s National Security Council, worked with Netanyahu for several years. “Rafah is important not because of the four Hamas battalions that are still there,” he said. “Rafah is important because the message to Palestinians living in Gaza is that Hamas will not be able to control Gaza forever.”
Otherwise, he said, Gazans “would continue to fear Hamas and therefore cooperate with Hamas.”
Even a modest operation in Rafah “fits several of Netanyahu’s objectives simultaneously,” said Natan Sachs, director of the Middle East Policy Center at the Brookings Institution.
Like many Israeli officials, including those who want a ceasefire deal now, Sachs said: “Netanyahu truly believes that an operation in Rafah is critical to Israel’s overall objectives: not only to go after the remaining Hamas forces, but also isolating their ability to resupply through smuggling across the Egyptian border.”
The military operation “also puts pressure on Hamas to give in on some of its broader demands in the ceasefire negotiations,” Sachs said.
Despite serious American concerns, a limited operation now in Rafah suits Netanyahu politically, he said, “with a right flank opposing a deal now, before the main operational objective is achieved, and facing public anger.” for the fact that Hamas is still standing, if it is seriously damaged.”
Diplomacy
Netanyahu is under enormous diplomatic pressure – from allies such as Washington and Berlin, the United Nations, the European Union and the region’s Sunni Arab states – to prevent a major operation in Rafah.
They want him to allow much more humanitarian aid into Gaza and to agree to a deal with Hamas that could at least promise what the current draft calls a “sustainable calm,” rather than a permanent ceasefire.
But such an agreement would still not resolve the fundamental division between Israel and Hamas over how to end the conflict.
Hamas wants the war to end now, with the withdrawal of all Israeli troops from Gaza and the release of all hostages in exchange for large numbers of Palestinians held in Israeli jails.
Israel wants to ensure that any ceasefire is temporary, so that Hamas cannot claim victory and begin restoring its control over Gaza.
Still, after Hamas’s most recent concessions, along with Israeli military measures to control the Egyptian border, a ceasefire agreement seems much more possible than before, perhaps even desirable for Netanyahu.
But Gazans are cautious and distrustful of Israeli statements. Mkhaimar Abusada is a Gaza political scientist whose university in the enclave, Al-Azhar, has been destroyed in the fighting. Now in Cairo with his family, Abusada says he is convinced that “no matter what the international community says, Netanyahu will go to Rafah.”
Netanyahu “wants to maintain his coalition government, avoid early elections, remain prime minister and not go to jail,” he said. “I just hope he does it in a way that treats Palestinian civilians humanely.”
But in the end, Abusada said, Netanyahu “and Israel cannot emerge victorious after this war, not with so much death and destruction, with all the Palestinian civilians and children dead.”