Near the end of a whirlwind trip to the Middle East this week, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken wrapped up meetings with the Israeli president and relatives of American hostages held by Hamas, left his beachside hotel in Tel Aviv. and shook hands with protesters gathered outside.
He looked them in the eye and said there was a new hostages-for-a-ceasefire deal on the table that Hamas would have to accept.
“Bringing your loved ones home is at the center of everything we are trying to do, and we will not rest until everyone – men, women, soldiers, civilians, young people, old people – is back home,” he said.
That public show of empathy with frustrated protesters is something Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has avoided since the war began in October. And lately he has focused his recent public comments on an imminent ground offensive: an invasion of the southern Gaza city of Rafah “with or without” a ceasefire agreement, as the Israeli leader put it on Tuesday.
Although it was not the first time Netanyahu had vowed to invade Hamas’s last stronghold in Gaza, U.S. officials were taken aback by the timing of the comment. Threatening an offensive in Rafah may put pressure on Hamas to accept the deal, but only if Hamas leaders think that the release of hostages for Palestinian prisoners and a six-week pause in fighting could eventually lead to a halt. permanent fire and avoid a bloody battle in Rafah. , where more than a million displaced Gazans have sought refuge, officials say.
Nearly seven months into the war, the stated goals and diplomatic efforts of the United States and Israel appear further apart than ever, a gap that continues to widen under the domestic political imperatives of President Biden and Netanyahu.
Biden and his top advisers envision a path that involves Hamas releasing about three dozen hostages within weeks; the two sides enact a temporary ceasefire that leads to a permanent one and more hostage releases; and prominent Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia, agreeing to participate in reconstruction and security efforts, as well as the normalization of diplomatic relations with Israel.
Israeli officials have recently shown some flexibility over the terms of the ceasefire agreement, saying they would reduce the number of hostages Hamas would have to release in the initial round from 40 to 33.
However, even as Israel relented on these points, Netanyahu rejected the idea of a permanent ceasefire and redoubled his public promise to eradicate Hamas and many fighters he claims remain in Rafah, despite widespread belief among American officials. that your goal is unattainable.
U.S. officials oppose the Rafah invasion and say Israel should carry out targeted operations against Hamas leaders, not a major attack. When Blinken met with Netanyahu in Jerusalem on Wednesday, he reiterated the United States’ “clear position” on Rafah, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said.
The pressures on the Biden administration are also clear. Biden’s coalition of liberal voters could fracture as opposition to his unwavering support for Israel in the war grows, jeopardizing his chances of defeating Donald J. Trump, the Republican contender, in November. Students protesting Biden’s policies on American college campuses and the resulting police crackdown have further thrust the issue into the spotlight.
And the United States finds itself deflecting criticism from Arab partners and governments in Asia, Africa and Latin America, and protecting Israel from pro-Palestinian resolutions at the United Nations. Amid cries of hypocrisy against Washington, it is clear that Biden’s support for Israel will make it more difficult for it to win support for US policies aimed at countering Russia and China, particularly in nations of the global south.
Blinken is grappling with challenges. On Monday, the first day of his current Middle East tour, in meetings with Arab and European officials in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, he steered discussions toward the release of hostages and plans for postwar reconstruction in Gaza. He made humanitarian aid the theme of his stop in Jordan the next day.
Asked by reporters about Netanyahu’s insistence on an offensive in Rafah, Blinken said the ceasefire agreement and humanitarian aid were the “core” of American efforts.
The Israeli protesters outside Blinken’s hotel in Tel Aviv were on the same wavelength. They have pinned their hopes on the U.S. government rather than their own to end the crisis, which began when about 1,200 Israelis were killed in Hamas-led attacks on Oct. 7 and about 250 were taken hostage. More than 34,000 Palestinians have been killed in the Israeli army’s air retaliation campaign and ground invasion.
“SOSUSA, only you can save the day,” chanted the protesters. “Thank you, Biden, thank you, Blinken.”
Biden and Netanyahu are also clashing over what Americans call a long-term political solution to the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Americans are working on a plan to get Saudi Arabia and perhaps other Arab nations to agree to normalize relations with Israel, but only if the Israeli government commits to a concrete path with firm timelines for the founding of a Palestinian nation. Netanyahu opposes that, as do many Israelis.
Still, Biden maintains his general support for Israel in the war and has not placed conditions on military aid or arms sales, something even centrist foreign policy analysts and former US officials are calling for.
Netanyahu, clinging to power despite a decline in his international and domestic standing, faces a series of seemingly mutually exclusive options. He is caught between competing pressures applied by the Biden administration and the far-right members of his governing coalition, whose support is crucial to the survival of his government.
Its far-right ministers threaten to resign if the much-announced Rafah operation is suspended. Bezalel Smotrich, the ultranationalist finance minister, has described hostage deal on the table as “a dangerous Israeli capitulation and a terrible victory for Hamas.” Itamar Ben-Gvir, the far-right national security minister, said on Tuesday that he had “warned” Netanyahu of the consequences of not going to Rafah and instead accepting a “reckless deal” that would end the war. .
Centrists who joined Netanyahu’s government in October, bringing broader popular legitimacy to his war efforts, have warned that they will not tolerate decisions based on political considerations rather than the national interest.
The Israeli public simultaneously longs for the return of the hostages and longs for the defeat of Hamas, even as it is divided over the prospects for outright victory.
A poll commissioned this week by Kan, Israel’s public broadcaster, indicated that 54 percent of respondents favored an initial deal that would release the most vulnerable hostages during a 40-day ceasefire. Nearly half of those surveyed (47 percent) said they would support a comprehensive settlement for all hostages and an end to the war.
“Netanyahu’s political future depends on the outcome of the war,” said Nachman Shai, a former government minister and expert on Israeli diplomacy and security. “He can’t juggle all the balls.”
For now, Netanyahu’s critics say, he is dithering. Some say he trusts the Hamas leadership to reject the hostage deal on the table, others that far-right ministers in his government are holding him captive. Both opinions could be valid.
A political cartoon published Wednesday in Yediot Ahronot, a popular Hebrew newspaper, showed Netanyahu sitting at his desk marked “prime minister of Israel,” examining the proposal for a hostage deal and declaring: “That will never work with my managers.” “.