Russian troops captured or entered about half a dozen villages on Ukraine’s eastern front over the past week, highlighting the deteriorating situation in the region for outgunned and outnumbered Ukrainian forces as they await the much-needed US military aid.
“The situation on the front has worsened,” Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s top commander, said in a statement Sunday announcing that his troops had withdrawn from two villages west of Avdiivka, a Ukrainian stronghold in the east. that Russia took. earlier this year, and another town further south.
Military experts say Moscow’s recent advances reflect its desire to seize a window of opportunity to press ahead with strikes before the first batch of a new U.S. military aid package arrives in Ukraine to help relieve its troops.
Congress recently approved $60 billion in military aid for Ukraine, and President Biden signed it last week, promising to speed up arms shipments.
“In an attempt to seize the strategic initiative and break the front line, the enemy has focused its main efforts on several areas, creating a significant advantage in forces and means,” General Syrsky said on Sunday.
Here’s a look at the current situation.
Slow but steady progress near Avdiivka
General Syrsky said the “most difficult situation” at the moment was around the villages west of Avdiivka, which Russia captured in February after months of fierce battles. He said Russia had deployed up to four brigades to the area with the aim of advancing towards Ukrainian military logistics hubs such as the eastern city of Pokrovsk.
After Russia captured Avdiivka, Ukrainian forces fell back to a new defensive line about three miles to the west, along a series of small villages, but that line has now been overrun by Russian forces. General Syrsky said on Sunday that his troops had withdrawn from Berdychi and Semenivka, the last two villages in that area that were not yet under full Russian control.
Serhii Kuzan, president of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, a non-governmental research group, said the Ukrainian command had to “choose between a bad situation and an even worse one” and decided to lose territory instead of soldiers.
To further complicate the situation, Russian forces managed to break through the northern part of this defensive line by taking advantage of a gap in the Ukrainian positions and advancing rapidly towards the village of Ocheretyne. That town is located on a road leading to Pokrovsk, about 18 miles to the west. It is unclear whether Russian forces have gained full control of the site.
The offensive on Chasiv Yar
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, said on Sunday that Russia’s advances at Ocheretyne presented the Russian command with a choice: continue advancing west toward Pokrovsk or advance north, towards Chasiv Yar, a city that has suffered relentless Russian attacks in recent weeks.
According to Ukrainian officials, some 25,000 Russian troops are involved in an offensive against Chasiv Yar. Chasiv Yar, about seven miles west of Bakhmut, lies on strategic high ground.
Its capture would put the town of Kostiantynivka, about 16 kilometers to the southwest, in Moscow’s direct line of fire. The city is the main supply point for Ukrainian forces along much of the Eastern Front.
An advance north from Ocheretyne could also allow Russian forces to attack Kostiantynivka from the south, in a pincer movement.
“Russian forces currently have opportunities to make significant operational gains near Chasiv Yar and are preparing reserves to support a large-scale offensive effort planned for this summer,” the Institute for the Study of War said in its report on Sunday.