They are studying their interviews, preparing for mass deportations and preparing political proposals to bring to the negotiating table.
As Mexico approaches next month’s presidential election, government officials and campaign aides are also preparing for a different vote: one in the United States that could return Donald Trump to the presidency.
The last time Trump took office, his victory surprised many of America’s allies and his threat-filled diplomacy forced them to adapt on the fly. They now have time to anticipate how Trump’s victory would transform the relationships that President Biden has sought to normalize, and they are furiously preparing for an upheaval.
For some, the memory of negotiations with Trump the last time he was in office, when he used extreme threats against Mexico, looms large.
What did it take to reach an agreement with Trump’s team back then? “Time, patience, cold blood,” former Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard said in an interview. “You can win if you understand this. Is not easy.”
In Mexico, officials say working with Trump could be even more difficult this time. The former president promised “the largest deportation operation in American history,” floated the idea of imposing 100 percent tariffs on Chinese cars made in Mexico, and promised to deploy American special forces to, as he put it, “make the war on the cartels.”
Behind the scenes, the Mexican government is talking to people close to the Trump campaign about proposals such as the former president’s threat of a “universal tariff” on all imported goods, and working to resolve trade disagreements before the US election, according to a senior official. Mexican official who was not authorized to speak publicly.
The goal, the official said, is to leave the future Mexican administration as equipped as possible to dialogue with Trump.
President Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico forged a close working relationship with Trump in the early years of his administration, despite Trump’s repeated threats to impose tariffs on Mexico and make the country pay for a border wall.
But López Obrador will resign once his term ends after the June presidential election, in which polls give a significant lead to his protégé, Claudia Sheinbaum, the former mayor of Mexico City.
The unwritten rules of López Obrador’s relationship with Trump were that Mexico did everything it could on immigration and that the White House allowed him to pursue his domestic priorities without meddling. That seemed to work for both men.
The Mexican leader has praised Trump for respecting Mexican sovereignty. Trump, in turn, has called the Mexican leader “a friend” and “a great president.”
But it’s unclear how Trump would relate to either of the two leading presidential candidates.
“With President Trump or President Biden we are going to have good relations,” Sheinbaum said in an interview. “We will always defend Mexico and Mexicans in the United States, and we want an equal relationship.”
Xóchitl Gálvez, the main opposition candidate, said she too could work with either of them as president.
“I would obviously prefer to work with a respectful and courteous gentleman like Joe Biden,” Gálvez told The New York Times. “But in my professional and political life I have dealt with all types of masculinity,” he said. “It wouldn’t be the first time I faced a character with complicated masculinity, so I could work perfectly well with Trump.”
Campaign aides are making plans for either outcome.
“I’m not worried, but we are going to be prepared,” said Juan Ramón de la Fuente, a member of Sheinbaum’s team, referring to a possible Trump victory. “We are preparing for both scenarios.”
On migration, “we need to be more effective in reducing irregular crossings,” said de la Fuente, who recently served as Mexico’s ambassador to the United Nations and is seen as a possible choice for foreign minister in a possible administration. by Sheinbaum.
But he also noted that US laws function as “a not very healthy incentive” that helps drive migration, “because the moment you touch land, you are a candidate for asylum.”
Some officials in Mexico believe that the country has more influence in its relations with the United States than in the past. The White House has relied heavily on López Obrador to curb migration at the United States’ southern border, and that cooperation has given Mexico significant influence over one of the most important issues in American politics.
“In structural terms, Mexico is gaining more power relative to the United States,” Ebrard said. The Mexican economy has performed relatively well in recent years and its factories have become an attractive alternative to China for the United States.
Like Mexico, “any administration in the United States needs you for its immigration policy,” he said. “Geopolitical tension is contributing in a certain way to a stronger Mexico.”
Ebrard, who is part of Sheinbaum’s campaign and is seen as a possible Cabinet member if she wins, led negotiations with Trump’s advisers while he was in office.
In terms of trade, “his priority was labor reform, increasing wages in Mexico,” Ebrard said. That was acceptable to Mexico, since the López Obrador administration had campaigned on a leftist platform and was committed to raising Mexican wages.
In terms of migration, the true demand was much more difficult to satisfy. Trump wanted “a dramatic reduction” in border crossings, Ebrard said, but he did not agree with Mexico to invest in ways to address the causes that drive people to migrate.
Still, Mexico was able to pressure the government to recognize its point of view, he said.
In December 2018, the Trump administration joined a Mexican-led effort and committed billions of dollars in public and private investments in Central America, although months later the former president moved to cut all aid to the region in response to the migrant caravans.
The Mexican government has been criticized for receiving too little in return for accepting tens of thousands of returned asylum seekers under the Trump-era “Remain in Mexico” policy. But the administration also won clear victories, including renegotiating the free trade agreement with the United States and Canada.
Gálvez argued that the government missed an opportunity to guarantee more rights for undocumented Mexicans in the United States and protect immigrants trapped in Mexico, but he also praised the trade deal.
“In that sense, Mexico won, it won a lot under Trump,” Gálvez said, adding that Trump never actually imposed the tariffs he threatened. “It didn’t turn out that bad.”