South Africans were on edge Thursday as votes trickled in after a close national election, with early results showing poor results for the African National Congress, the party that has ruled the country for three decades.
While no official results are expected before the weekend, projections show the party, known as ANC, will likely win less than 50 percent of the vote, down from 57.5 percent in the last election ago. five years.
That would mean that the ANC – for the first time – would need to form a coalition with one or more rival parties to stay in power. In South Africa’s parliamentary system, President Cyril Ramaphosa, leader of the African National Congress, would need the support of members of the opposition to serve a second term.
A weakened ANC would significantly change South African politics, and also its policies, moving the country away from a government dominated by a single party to one held together by fragile coalitions. This strategy has worked for the ANC in small municipalities, but has proven difficult in large cities like Johannesburg, where it has led to political infighting.
With more than a third of all electoral districts counted, early results showed the ANC was on 43 percent, and trailing in critical provinces it won comfortably in the last election.
These early results for the ANC come largely from rural regions that have remained loyal to the party. In South Africa’s most populous province, Gauteng, only 12 percent of electoral districts had confirmed their results as of Thursday.
There are 51 opposition parties competing for voters. The largest, the Democratic Alliance, is led by John Steenhuisen, a white politician in a majority-black country. Before the elections, the Democratic Alliance formed an alliance with smaller opposition parties.
Without the support of the Democratic Alliance, the ANC may have to form a coalition with the next largest opposition party, the Economic Freedom Fighters, a left-wing party that has strong support among young voters. Their leader, Julius Malema, formed the Economic Freedom Fighters in 2013 after being expelled from the ANC youth league.
A new party, uMkhonto weSizwe, or MK, led by former president Jacob Zuma, who also broke away from the African National Congress, showed strength early in Zuma’s home province of KwaZulu Natal. Zuma’s daughter Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla recently said the MK party would not work with Ramaphosa.
Some analysts do not rule out that the ANC could still obtain more than 50 percent of the vote. The party could also regain support in provinces such as the Eastern Cape and Limpopo, giving it more negotiating power with opposition parties.
The election comes 30 years after the end of apartheid, at a time when South Africa’s economy is sluggish, youth unemployment is high and national morale is low.
On Wednesday, election day, lines snaked around the polling stations. New voting rules and an extra ballot to fill out caused delays, the electoral commission acknowledged. However, at 9pm, thousands of South Africans were still lining up as the polls closed, braving the cold autumn air as they waited for their chance to vote. The electoral commission said early figures showed voter turnout was higher than in the last national election, held in 2019.
“We’re fed up,” said Isabel Olatunji, pushing her young son in a stroller as she waited at a polling station in a northern suburb of Johannesburg. Olatunji, 32, said she was “60 percent optimistic” that the elections would bring change or, at least, she said, “get the ball rolling.”