For President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, the appointment of a new defense minister provides a new cornerstone for fighting a long war.
That was evident in Moscow on Monday when Andrei R. Belousov, the economist who was surprisingly tapped by Putin to head Russia’s sprawling Defense Ministry, made his first public appearance in his new role and talked about bureaucracy rather than the field of battle.
The choice reflects a recognition that the military production that fuels Russia’s war effort and fuels its economy must be carefully managed to sustain a war of attrition with Ukraine. In addition to Belousov’s appointment, Putin also promoted Denis Manturov, the outgoing minister of trade and industry, to the position of first deputy prime minister, a sign that expanding industrial production would become a government priority.
At the same time, Russia is playing the long game on the battlefield. Along the front line, most recently in northeastern Ukraine, Russian forces are advancing slowly rather than attempting major advances in large cities, as they did at the beginning of the war, with disastrous results.
In televised remarks in the upper house of the Russian parliament, which is expected to approve his nomination, Belousov emphasized the bureaucratic details of the rapidly growing military effort and made no reference to the situation on the front. He described his priorities as improving the standards of care and living for soldiers, veterans and their families.
He said the excessive paperwork faced by combatants to obtain benefits should be addressed “within the framework of inter-agency electronic coordination.”
“It is absolutely unacceptable” for soldiers to be redirected to overcrowded hospitals when they are on leave, said Belousov, who was nominated for the position in a cabinet reshuffle on Sunday night. “This problem must be resolved.”
Belousov’s focus on bureaucratic minutiae was particularly notable given that the comments came just days after Russian forces opened a new front in the war, successfully crossing Ukraine’s northern border. His comments offered a snapshot of how the sudden rise of a soft-spoken economic policy expert to the helm of a massive military apparatus fighting its biggest conflict since World War II has emerged as a new component in Putin’s strategy to defeat Ukraine through a war of attrition.
Belousov’s appointment signals Putin’s focus on subordinating the country’s economy to his military needs, with the expectation that a war in Ukraine, or at least a militarized confrontation with the West, could shape Russia’s future for years to come.
“Putin’s priority is war, and the war of attrition is won by the economy,” said Alexandra Prokopenko, a former Russian central bank official now at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.
In more than six years as Putin’s economic adviser, Belousov developed a reputation as a strong supporter of a dominant state role in the economy and high public spending. The war has already led Putin to enact some of the proposals Belousov had advocated for years, such as higher taxes on big businesses and greater use of the country’s oil savings.
In Moscow, Valentina Matviyenko, speaker of the upper house of parliament, said Belousov was the best choice to find ways to acquire “new and modern weaponry, new technology and new innovations” for the army.
He added that Belousov would not participate in battlefield command, which would continue to be led by the army’s General Staff.
Sergei Mironov, an ultranationalist lawmaker, welcomed Belousov’s appointment, adding that “it is not the military alone fighting today, but also the economies.”
Some Russian officials have expressed hopes that Belousov’s organizational skills will improve Russia’s production of high-precision weapons, an area in which Russia continues to lag behind the West.
In particular, officials have cited Belousov’s attempts to improve drone production in Russia last year by streamlining bureaucracy.
“With these personnel decisions, Putin is preparing for a long-term attritional confrontation with the West,” said Konstantin Remchukov, editor of a Moscow newspaper close to the Kremlin. “The winner will be the one who has the most resources or is most effective in using them.”
A person close to the Defense Ministry, who spoke about government policy on condition of anonymity, said Belousov would nevertheless face challenges such as the continuing shortage of high-precision weapons in Russia, which has made it difficult for Russia to gain an advantage. decisive on the battlefield.
Belousov replaces Sergei K. Shoigu, a longtime minister who was fiercely loyal to Putin. Many analysts said that, despite his close ties to the Russian leader, Shoigu’s days were numbered due to the spectacular failure of the initial invasion in February 2022.
But rather than fire Shoigu as Russia struggled to stay in the fight, Putin decided to replace him only after his forces regained balance. Today, Russia appears to be in its strongest position in the war.
“Putin is seeing that many things were not done right; there were very serious mistakes,” Sergei Markov, a Moscow political analyst and former Kremlin adviser, said in a telephone interview. But, he added, “you don’t make personnel decisions in a crisis.”
“Now the crisis has been resolved,” Markov said.
Shoigu’s position in the Defense Ministry was severely weakened last month when prosecutors accused one of his deputies, General Timur Ivanov, of “large-scale” corruption. Russian commentators widely interpreted the move as evidence of Putin’s discontent with the extravagant lifestyle of Shoigu’s inner circle.
By contrast, Belousov has not been implicated in any major corruption scandals after decades of working in the government.
“Putin needs a reliable person in the segment where the most money flows,” said Remchukov, the newspaper’s editor.
The person close to the Russian Defense Ministry said that while Belousov is unlikely to root out widespread corruption in military procurement, he could hide its worst excesses, reducing the threat of outbreaks of popular discontent.
Belousov’s appointment, however, does not represent a complete break with the military establishment that devised the disastrous invasion plan.
Military analysts say Belousov’s impact will depend on how he handles relations with top security officials such as General Valery Gerasimov, chief of the General Staff.
But the appointment of a methodical bureaucrat to oversee Russia’s war effort also dovetails with the consolidation of a slower-paced Russian battlefield strategy.
Failed attempts to stun the enemy into submission in the first month of the invasion with armored attacks and parachute drops have since given way to systematic blows against Ukrainian defenses in several sections of the front line simultaneously.
This strategy has allowed Russia to exploit its advantage in manpower and firepower to inch forward against overstretched and exhausted defenders, evident in the way Russia conducted its recent incursions into northern Ukraine.
Russia had initially attempted to capture the northern city of Kharkiv in the first weeks of the war by sending armored columns across the border along the roads. The attack quickly collapsed after encountering determined Ukrainian forces, who then forced Russia into a hasty retreat.
This time Russia has used small infantry units supported by artillery to filter across the border and advance slowly, one village at a time.
Military analysts said the offensive has little chance of capturing the city of Kharkiv itself. But the attacks appear to have succeeded in attracting Ukrainian reinforcements from other sections of the front, at a time when the country is struggling to recruit enough fighters and obtain new weapons from its Western allies.
“Russian leaders recognize that this is a long war that will require managing attrition, reconstitution and defense industrial mobilization,” said Michael Kofman, a Washington-based military analyst.