Israel and Hezbollah have exchanged fire across the Lebanese border since the start of the war in Gaza, and more than 150,000 people on both sides of the border were forced to flee their homes. But the intensity of the attacks has increased in recent days, raising fears of a full-scale war on another front.
This week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel threatened further military action to ensure the return of civilians to communities in northern Israel. Here are some key questions about the conflict and where it might be heading:
Why are the two sides fighting?
Hezbollah, a powerful Lebanese militia and political movement, launched attacks against Israel on October 8, responding to calls from Hamas to open a second front a day after the Palestinian armed group that rules Gaza led a deadly attack on Israel. Both Hezbollah and Hamas are backed by Iran.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has said his group is trying to pin down Israel’s troops along the border and limit their ability to attack Hamas in Gaza.
Hezbollah’s conflict with Israel goes back decades. Israel has invaded Lebanon three times in the past 50 years, most recently in 2006, when the two sides fought a month-long war that killed more than 1,000 people in Lebanon, mostly civilians, and more than 150 in Lebanon. Israel, mostly soldiers. The current round of fighting marks the most serious escalation since then.
In February, Israel launched its deepest strikes against Lebanon in years, hitting the Bekaa Valley in response to a surface-to-air missile attack that downed an Israeli drone over southern Lebanon.
In April, Hezbollah launched a drone and missile attack on northern Israel that injured 14 soldiers, one of whom was killed. Later that month, the group claimed to have launched its deepest attack into Israel since October, targeting a barracks north of the city of Acre with drones.
In recent weeks, Hezbollah for the first time began attacking Israel’s vaunted Iron Dome missile defense system.
This week, a Hezbollah rocket attack caused forest fires to break out in northern Israel, prompting Netanyahu on Wednesday to threaten “very intense measures” to “restore security in the north.”
What is the balance of the confrontations so far?
Cross-border attacks have caused casualties on both sides. In Lebanon, Hezbollah says more than 300 fighters have been killed, while the United Nations says around 80 civilians have been killed. In Israel, authorities say 19 security personnel and at least eight civilians have been killed.
Some senior Hezbollah and Hamas officials have also been killed in Lebanon. A senior Hamas official, Saleh al-Arouri, was killed in a suspected Israeli attack outside Beirut in January. A commander of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan force was killed in southern Lebanon that same month.
Israeli authorities have ordered the evacuation of 60,000 civilians from border areas. On the Lebanon side, more than 90,000 people have fled their homes.
Netanyahu has repeatedly said he is determined to expel Hezbollah from the border and allow displaced Israelis to return to their homes, a key domestic political issue. Analysts say pressure from his far-right coalition allies could prompt him to launch a broader attack.
But with thousands of fighters and a vast arsenal of rockets, Hezbollah is capable of attacking infrastructure and cities across Israel, and any invasion of Lebanon would likely prove costly for Israeli forces as they continue to fight Hamas in Gaza.
A war would also devastate Lebanon, which faces political stagnation and the effects of a historic economic collapse. During the 2006 war, Israeli attacks devastated large areas of Beirut and displaced nearly a million people.
Hezbollah’s deputy leader, Sheikh Naim Qassem, said this week that the armed group was not seeking to expand the conflict but would wage war if attacked. The Biden administration has sought since October 7 to avoid a broader regional war and bring the two sides to the table, but Hezbollah says it will not negotiate until the war in Gaza ends.