Mexicans will vote Sunday in an election that is groundbreaking on several fronts: It will be the largest race in the country’s history, it is already among the most violent in recent history and it will likely place a woman in the presidency for the first time. ever ever
The two main contenders, who polls show have largely divided the electorate, are women. The favorite is Claudia Sheinbaum, a climate scientist who represents the ruling party and its allies. Her closest competitor is Xóchitl Gálvez, a businesswoman in a ticket that includes a group of opposition parties.
Sheinbaum has had a double-digit lead in polls for months, but the opposition has argued that those numbers understate true support for their candidate. In an interview, Gálvez said that “there is an anti-system vote” and if Mexicans turned out in force on Sunday, “we will win.”
“He has a 30-point advantage mentality,” Gálvez said of his rival. “But she’s going to get the surprise of her life.”
The contest shows the immense strides in Mexican politics made in recent years by women, who were not even allowed to vote in the country until 1953. Both leading candidates have considerable experience; Gálvez was a senator and Sheinbaum governed the capital, one of the largest cities in the hemisphere.
“For the first time in 200 years of the republic, women will reach the highest distinction that our people can give us: the presidency of Mexico,” Sheinbaum said in a recent speech.
However, much of the race has focused on a figure who is not on the ballot, but who looms large: the powerful current president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
López Obrador has been a fixture of Mexican politics for decades, running for president in the previous three elections before finally winning in a landslide in 2018.
While widely popular, López Obrador has been a polarizing figure, drawing adulation from his die-hard fans and vitriol from his critics. His administration doubled the minimum wage and used cash transfer programs to help lift millions out of poverty, while strengthening the military and adopting measures that many warned would weaken democratic institutions.
His dominance disrupted establishment politics, leading three parties – right, center and left – to form an uneasy union that now backs Gálvez.
Sheinbaum has appealed to voters primarily by promising to continue his legacy. Gálvez has presented himself as an alternative for those dissatisfied with López Obrador’s leadership and has promised to reverse many of his policies.
“The way these elections have played out is a testament to the impact that López Obrador has had on Mexican politics,” said Carlos Bravo Regidor, a Mexican political analyst. “He is the center around which political identities and political positions are defined.”
Whoever succeeds López Obrador will face enormous challenges.
Cartel violence continues to torment the country, displacing people en masse and fueling one of the deadliest campaign cycles in recent Mexican history. López Obrador directed the government’s attention to addressing the factors driving violence rather than declaring war on criminal groups, a strategy he called “hugs, not bullets.”
Ms. Gálvez has criticized this approach.
“Enough of hugs for criminals and bullets for those citizens,” he joked during the election campaign. He has said he would withdraw the armed forces from civilian activities and direct them to focus on fighting organized crime, while strengthening the police.
Sheinbaum has said he will continue to focus on the social causes of violence, but will also work to reduce impunity rates and strengthen the national guard.
On the economy, the opportunities are clear: Mexico is now the United States’ largest trading partner, benefiting from China’s recent shift away from manufacturing. The currency is so strong that it has been called the “superpeso.”
But there are also latent problems. The federal deficit has soared to around 6 percent this year, and Pemex, the national oil company, is operating under a mountain of debt, putting pressure on public finances.
“The fiscal risk we face right now is something we have not seen in decades,” said Mariana Campos, director of México Evalúa, a public policy research group.
Another challenge has to do with the broad new responsibilities given to the armed forces, which have been tasked with managing ports and airports, running an airline, and building a railway through the Mayan jungle. Sheinbaum has said there is “no militarization” of the country, while suggesting she is willing to reevaluate the military’s involvement in public companies.
In addition to these pressing domestic challenges, the fate of the next president will be intertwined with the outcome of the US presidential election. A re-election victory for President Biden would provide continuity, but Donald J. Trump’s return to the White House would likely be much less predictable.
Trump’s plans to round up undocumented people on a large scale and deport them to their countries of origin could affect millions of Mexicans living in the United States. He has already threatened to impose 100 percent tariffs on Chinese cars made in Mexico.
Then there is the festering problem of fentanyl, which the U.S. government says cartels produce in Mexico using chemicals imported from China. Trump has suggested taking military action to combat the fentanyl trade.
Handling that pressure from Washington, even in the form of inflammatory campaign rhetoric, could prove a challenge for Mexico’s next president.
Sheinbaum has said Mexico would have “good relations” with Trump or Biden as president, and his campaign team has said it will continue working to contain migrant flows.
Ms. Galvez said she, too, would feel comfortable working with both men.
When asked how she would handle Mr. Trump, she said, “I’m used to dealing with toxic masculinity.”
“It seems to me that Trump, deep down, is a pragmatic man,” he said, adding, “what he wants is to solve the problems at the border and with fentanyl, and I think we can.”
Emiliano Rodríguez Mega contributed to this report from Mexico City.