Voters in the European Union’s 27 member states sent a stern warning to major political powers, wreaking havoc on French and, to a lesser extent, German politics and rewarding hardline nationalist parties in several countries.
Still, the radical right wave feared by the European political establishment did not fully materialize; the center of European Union policy.
These are the biggest trends emerging from the election.
Conservatives dominate
The main center-right group, the European People’s Party, performed solidly and finished first, not only maintaining its dominance in the European Parliament but adding some seats to boot.
It was a sign that his strategy of the past two years, of integrating more right-leaning policies to prevent voters from abandoning the country in favor of more right-leaning rivals, was working.
For the past five years, the political group spearheaded the Green Deal, one of the most ambitious climate change policies in the world. But more recently, under pressure from farmers who represent an important constituency, it watered down some of the policies adopted at EU level.
It also led to a significant tightening of the European Union’s migration policy, going partly, but not entirely, to assuaging the concerns of voters who want to quickly end irregular migration.
Disruption of the far right
The conservatives’ thunder was somewhat stolen by a successful performance by Marine Le Pen’s ultranationalist National Rally in France. They gained twice as much support from a centrist coalition led by President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party, prompting him to dissolve the National Assembly and call early legislative elections.
The Alternative for Germany, or AfD, an ultranationalist party that has been designated a “suspected” extremist group by German authorities, jumped to second place in the polls there, although well behind the winner, the conservatives. It overtook Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats, leaving him further weakened as he continues to struggle at the head of an unstable coalition.
The center holds, alone
The solid performance of the center-right was not repeated in the other two large centrist groups in the European Parliament. The Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, traditionally the second largest power in the House, maintained its strength and, more or less, the number of its seats. But the Liberals lost badly, weakening the informal centrist coalition of pro-European Union powers that generally underpins the passage of laws in the European Parliament, despite their differences.
Together, the three will control more than 400 seats in the new Parliament, which will be inaugurated on July 16. It looks like a comfortable majority, but voting discipline among political groups can sometimes be weak, and tactical alliances may be necessary in the future. to ensure that laws are passed. The first test of the new, weaker parliamentary majority will be the confirmation of the president of the European Commission, the bloc’s top official, scheduled for July 18.
From a political perspective, the electoral resilience of the centrist powers will translate into some continuity, particularly in the preservation of the European Union’s support for Ukraine.
The greens are collapsing but they still matter
The Greens were the big losers of the night: after having performed well in 2019 and emerging as a major progressive power in Parliament, they lost a quarter of their seats in the new elections.
This was largely predicted: voters abandoned the environmentally-focused party for two key reasons. Environmentally concerned voters found that the green agenda had largely been integrated into other, larger traditional parties. In some ways, the Greens had lost their unique appeal.
But other voters felt the green agenda in Europe has gone too far, hurting farmers and rural voters more generally.
Still, the Greens could emerge as a reserve of support for the three centrists, despite their small seats.
Don’t you make kings anymore?
Before the election, conservatives had floated the idea of linking up with the European Conservatives and Reformists, another right-wing group dominated by Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. This would have been a big no-no for the Conservatives’ other centrist allies, especially those on the left and center-left who see the group and Meloni as radicals in traditional clothing.
With the centrist majority holding, the need to turn to Meloni and the members of the European Parliament she controls appears to have largely evaporated for now. While the Conservatives may still need to partner with this group in Parliament on a tactical basis, it seems unlikely that they will have to rely on them.
That said, Meloni remains a key leader of the European Union Member States, with an outsize presence that has influenced the political landscape and has already pushed many policies in their favor. She performed very well at home, unlike the leaders of other major EU countries, reaffirming her dominance.