Britain, the birthplace of the Industrial Revolution and a once coal-burning imperialist giant, wants to be a “clean energy superpower.”
At least that is the promise of the man who is about to become the next prime minister, Keir Starmer. His Labour Party is expected to win Thursday’s parliamentary election, ending 14 years of Conservative rule.
The Labour Party made big campaign promises on climate. The end result of those promises will be felt not only in the everyday lives of Britons, but also in the country’s standing in the world.
Britain is one of the biggest climate polluters in history. It was there that the Industrial Revolution began in the 18th century, giving rise to a global economy powered by coal, oil and gas – and with it, planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions. So the speed and scale of Britain’s energy transition is likely to be closely watched by other industrialised countries and emerging economies.
Britain likes to think of itself as a global climate leader. In 2008, it became the first among major industrialized countries to pass a climate change law. Since then, its emissions have fallen dramatically. In 2021, its government set a legally binding target of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 78 percent by 2035, relative to 1990 levels, in one of the most ambitious climate laws in the world.
The hard part, however, is getting there. The new government will have to deal with a cost-of-living crisis at home, geopolitical turmoil abroad and a series of extreme weather events exacerbated by rising fossil fuel emissions.
Here are three things to keep in mind as the new administration gets to work.
What does it take to abandon fossil fuels?
Mr Starmer’s campaign manifesto promised “zero-carbon electricity by 2030”.
Luckily for him, the country is already on its way to achieving this.
Coal no longer generates the majority of its electricity. The last coal-burning power station is scheduled to close in September. Coal has gone from supplying 40 percent of its electricity in 2012 to almost zero today, according to an analysis by Carbon Brief, an independent climate news site.
The challenge now is to reduce reliance on gas. By 2023, it supplied just over 30 percent of Britain’s electricity. The government must either cut that figure to zero by 2030 or find ways to capture and bury the greenhouse gases produced by gas plants.
Labour leaders have also said they would double onshore wind capacity, quadruple offshore wind capacity and triple solar power.
Joss Garman, chief executive of the European Climate Foundation, called the pledge of carbon-free electricity an “ambitious goal” that would require changes to approval laws for wind and solar projects.
What is the future of North Sea oil?
North Sea oil production has declined steadily over the past 20 years and is expected to continue to decline until mid-century.
However, the issue of oil and gas licences in the North Sea is politically charged.
Last year, current Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said Britain should “maximise” North Sea oil and gas. He set up a system to issue new licences, prompting the resignation of a former energy minister, who said cause “future harm.”
Mr Starmer’s party has said it will respect existing licences but refrain from issuing new ones.
Oil and gas companies already face a 75 percent tax in Britain. The incoming Labour government has said it will increase it slightly to 78 percent.
There is another problem, and that is Scotland.
Scottish nationalists have pushed for a bigger stake in North Sea oil and gas because it lies in Scottish waters. The decline in production there is likely to be felt first and most acutely in communities along Scotland’s northeast coast, which rely on the industry for jobs.
Will climate action continue to polarize?
Unlike in the US, there was broad political consensus in Britain on the need to tackle climate change. Indeed, climate action was a favourite of the Conservatives.
Former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher sounded the alarm about climate change. Theresa May, also a Conservative prime minister, led the push to reach a net-zero emissions target by 2050, meaning that by law Britain must remove the same amount of greenhouse gas emissions from the atmosphere as the country pumps into it by mid-century. In 2021, Boris Johnson’s government pledged to cut emissions by 78 percent by 2035.
Recently, that goal has changed. Sunak has called the green transition too costly. For example, the ban on new petroleum and diesel-powered cars in 2030 has been postponed until 2035.
Starmer is likely to reinstate the ban until 2030. He has also promised to double funding for energy efficiency programmes and create a new national energy company which he says will cut energy bills.
At the same time, the far-right Reform UK party, led by Nigel Farage, is pushing to abandon the net-zero emissions target by 2050 altogether. Exit polls project Farage’s party has a surprisingly large presence in Parliament, reflecting the rise of the far right across Europe.
