The stakes could hardly be higher.
This July, for the first time in more than a decade, Venezuelans will vote in a presidential election with an opposition candidate who has a chance, however slim and unlikely, of winning.
In the midst of an economic and democratic crisis that has led more than seven million Venezuelans to leave the country (considered one of the largest displacements in the world), Nicolás Maduro, the country’s authoritarian president, has done something that few thought he would do. would: allow an opposition candidate with broad support to appear on the ballot.
Although largely unknown, the challenger leads several polls, underscoring how many Venezuelans are hungry for change.
Still, few have any illusions that the vote will be democratic or fair. And even if a majority of voters voted against Maduro, there are widespread doubts that he would allow the results to become public, or that he would accept them if they did.
Venezuela is preparing to vote at a time when the country faces important problems that will resonate far beyond its borders.
They include overseeing the fate of the country’s vast oil reserves, the largest in the world; restore – or not – the battered relations with the United States; decide whether Iran, China and Russia can continue to depend on Venezuela as a key ally in the Western Hemisphere; and confront a domestic humanitarian crisis that has plunged a once-prosperous nation into immense suffering.
A Maduro victory could drive Venezuela further into the hands of American adversaries, intensify poverty and repression, and spur an even greater exodus of people north to the United States, where increased immigration has become an issue. central in the November presidential elections. choice.
His opponent is Edmundo González, a former diplomat who became the opposition’s surprise consensus candidate after the Maduro government blocked its popular leader, María Corina Machado, from running.
His supporters hope he can help the country put aside 25 years of Chavismo, the socialist movement that began with the democratic election of Hugo Chávez in 1998 and has since become more authoritarian.
Ahead of the July 28 vote, Maduro, 61, has the legislature, the army, the police, the justice system, the national electoral council, the country’s budget and much of the media under control. , not to mention the violent paramilitary gangs. called collectives.
González, 74, and Machado, 56, have made it clear that they are a package deal. Ms. Machado has been rallying voters at events across the country, where she is received like a rock star. filling city blocks with people making emotional pleas for her to save the country. González has stayed closer to Caracas, the capital, holding meetings and doing television interviews.
In a joint interview, González said he was “caught by surprise” when Maduro allowed him to register as a candidate, and he still had no clear explanation why.
While Maduro has held elections in recent years, a key tactic has been to ban legitimate rivals.
The last competitive presidential election was held in 2013, when Maduro narrowly defeated a long-standing opposition figure, Henrique Capriles. In the next vote, in 2018, the government banned the country’s most popular opposition figures from running, and the United States, the European Union and dozens of other nations refused to recognize the results.
But in recent months, Machado said, the country has witnessed a series of events that few thought possible: Maduro’s government allowed an opposition primary vote to take place, in which turnout was huge, and Machado emerged as the clear winner; the opposition, famous for its infighting, managed to unite around Machado; and when she was unable to run, opposition leaders rallied to back her replacement, Mr. González.
“Never in 25 years have we entered an electoral process in a position of such strength,” said Ms. Machado.
(Both declined to say exactly what role Machado might take, if any, in a González government.)
Three polls conducted within the country showed that the majority of respondents planned to vote for Mr. González.
In a dozen interviews in different parts of the country this month, voters showed broad support for the opposition.
“He’s going to win, I’m convinced of it,” said Elena Rodríguez, 62, a retired nurse in the state of Sucre. Mrs. Rodríguez said 11 family members had left the country to escape poverty.
Maduro still retains a portion of support within Venezuela and can motivate people to go to the polls with the promise of food and other incentives.
A Maduro supporter in Sucre, Jesús Meza Díaz, 59, said he would vote for the current president because he trusted him to guide the country through economic problems for which he blamed US sanctions.
Perhaps the most important question, however, is not whether González could attract enough votes to win, but whether Maduro is ready or willing to give up power.
Maduro’s government has been stifled by U.S. sanctions on the country’s vital oil industry, and some analysts say it allowed González to run only because it could help him influence Washington to ease sanctions.
“I believe that the negotiation with the United States is what is making an electoral process possible,” said Luz Mely Reyes, a prominent Venezuelan journalist.
Maduro has barely indicated that he is ready to leave office. In February he promised a large crowd of supporters that he would win the election “by hook or by crook.”
Since January, his government has detained and imprisoned 10 members of Machado’s political team. Five others have arrest warrants and are hiding in the Argentine embassy in Caracas.
Avi Roa, wife of Emill Brandt, a leader of Machado’s party who has been detained since March, called her husband’s capture a “horrible terror.” Irama Macías, wife of imprisoned Machado ally Luis Camacaro, called her arrest “something very cruel” that “should not happen anywhere in the world.”
A proposal in the legislature, called the Anti-Fascism Law, could allow the government to suspend González’s campaign at any time, said Laura Dib, a Venezuela expert at the Washington Office on Latin America. “This is a constant risk,” she added.
If Maduro cedes power, it would almost certainly be the result of an exit deal negotiated with the opposition.
Machado has repeatedly argued that his main challenge is to make Maduro see that remaining in power is unsustainable: that his government is running out of money, that too many Venezuelans want him to leave and that Chavismo is crumbling from within.
“The best option is a negotiated exit,” he said in the interview, “and the later it comes, the worse it will be.”
The country’s economic situation is dire, much of Maduro’s base has turned against him, and there are signs that Maduro fears an internal rift: he recently turned against a high-ranking ally, oil minister Tareck El-Aissami, imprisoning him accusing him of corruption.
The move was seen as a warning to anyone who might challenge him from within.
But few people see Maduro as weak enough to be forced to leave. And Maduro has a strong incentive to resist: he and other officials in his government are being investigated by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity. He is also wanted by the United States government, which has offered $15 million for information leading to his arrest.
If Maduro were to leave the presidency, he would almost certainly want to be protected from prosecution, something that could be difficult to guarantee.
Still, Machado and González, in the joint interview, indicated their willingness to negotiate a peaceful transition with the Maduro government before the elections.
“We are absolutely willing to move forward to put all the necessary terms and guarantees on the table,” Ms. Machado said, “so that all parties feel that it is a fair process.”
A senior U.S. official said there was no indication that talks about Maduro’s departure were happening now.
But, the official added, Maduro’s government was still talking to U.S. officials and the opposition, a sign that Maduro was still seeking international legitimacy and sanctions relief. That could change his stance, the official said, providing a hint of optimism for the country’s future.
Isayen Herrera contributed reporting from Caracas, Venezuela; Nayrobis Rodríguez from Cumaná, Venezuela; and Genevieve Glatsky from bogota, Colombia.