Hoffman encouraged his contacts to consider how Trump supporters reacted when he was convicted of 34 felonies:
“They closed ranks relentlessly and immediately, because they understand that at this stage of the race they must dedicate every minute and every penny to supporting their father or bringing down ours. If we reflect on Biden’s flaws, we are not organizing around Trump’s flaws. That’s bad for us and good for them.”
He also argued that Biden had the right team, the right “values, instincts, patriotism and courage” and that he still had a chance to win the race:
“Fundamentals matter far more than a single debate. Perhaps the best historical analogy is 1984, when Ronald Reagan’s first debate raised concerns about his age. He turned things around in the next debate and won the election in a landslide.”
Dalio, by contrast, focused on who could replace Biden as the candidate, suggesting the election could shape the next era of politics. The Republican side will be made up of “players from the far right,” he wrote, and Biden’s replacement will determine whether the Democratic side will be “soft left (socialists with liberal values) or far left (closer to communists). ”.
He explained:
“We should think about 1) the choice between right or left and how far left or right they are, and the facts that 2) the Republicans will present a leader and team that are far right (strongly capitalist, nationalist, isolationist with deeply conservative values), 3) in the coming months, we will know how far to the left the leader and players of the Democratic team will be, 4) the markets will prefer those on the right over those on the left, and 5) unfortunately, those in the bipartisan center (i.e., those who respect the civic rules of engagement and cooperate to create bipartisan leadership, which would be best) are largely out of the picture. Of course, personalities and competencies matter a little too; Unfortunately, personality will matter much more than competence.”
There was little optimism in Dalio’s email, which ended with his conclusion that the election is likely to come down to a choice between two extremists. “This leaves us with a rather unsettling domestic picture in a world where the other four big forces (debt/money/economics, international conflict between great powers, acts of nature/climate, and new technologies) will likely also disrupt the existing world order,” he wrote.
On our radar: ‘What went wrong with capitalism?’
Ruchir Sharma is worried about America. President of Rockefeller International and frequent business and markets commentator, he left his native India for the United States, partly inspired by Ronald Reagan’s promise of greater economic freedoms. He now warns that capitalism needs a reboot.
DealBook spoke with him about his new book, “What Went Wrong with Capitalism?” The conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity.
