Western leaders are embarking on an extraordinary series of summits this week, which could give them a chance to project unity to adversaries who increasingly see the West as something to be challenged, ignored or even repudiated.
But when they gather on the windswept cliffs of Normandy for the 80th anniversary of D-Day on Thursday, and five weeks later in Washington for a NATO summit, the leaders will be tested on a series of divisive issues: wars in Ukraine and Gaza, the rise of China and, perhaps most discouraging, the future of the United States.
On one level, D-Day and NATO are inspiring bookends: the former, a nostalgic commemoration of the Allied victory over Nazi tyranny; the second, a 75th birthday party for the alliance that rose from the ashes of World War II. In between, there is a peace conference for Ukraine in Switzerland and a summit of Group of 7 leaders in Italy.
Behind the pride and pomp, however, will be lingering doubts, especially about the direction of American policy. President Biden will travel to France and Italy (he is expected to skip the Swiss forum), but he is tightening diplomacy amid an election-year battle against former President Donald J. Trump, whose victory in November would call into question the very survival of the alliance that Western leaders spend so much time celebrating.
Trump’s shadow over events is inescapable. The summits are marked by his convictions last week for falsifying business records and his sentencing, which is scheduled for July 11, the last day of the NATO meeting in Washington. That will give European leaders a front-row view of America’s political dysfunction, even as Biden strives to unite them against the Russian threat.
“There’s a split screen,” said Charles A. Kupchan, a professor of international affairs at Georgetown University. “We are living in an era of resurgence and renewal in the Western alliance, and these various summits will reflect that.”
“But we’re going to celebrate it at the same time when everyone is worried about the upcoming US elections,” said Professor Kupchan, who worked on European affairs during the Obama administration. “For the first time since World War II, the internal threat to the West is more serious than the external threat.”
Western anxiety is not limited to concerns about the United States. Fears of a populist resurgence are spreading across Europe: from Italy, where a right-wing prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, will host the Group of 7 meeting, to France and Germany, where leaders face a growing discontent and restless rivals in the well. Far-right parties are expected to do well in European Parliament elections, which begin Thursday and could strike a discordant note amid tributes to D-Day heroes.
“Europeans already thought that this whole series of criminal cases was helping Trump rather than hindering him,” said Kim Darroch, who was Britain’s ambassador to the United States during the Trump administration. “This will be part of every conversation between delegations at all of these summits.”
Wolfgang Ischinger, former German ambassador to Washington, said: “Europe harbors doubts not so much about the rule of law as about the adulthood of the American electorate, some of whom appear to be extremely gullible and too susceptible to the temptations of Trumpian populism. .”
For Ischinger, who chaired the Munich Security Conference through 2022, Trump’s ruling will be an untimely distraction from a NATO meeting that could “offer a unique opportunity to restore faith in our common vision of freedom and show resolve in its place”. of hesitation, courage instead of fear.”
Biden took a decisive step in that direction last week by allowing Ukraine to use American weapons in limited military strikes inside Russia. That decision could now galvanize other Western countries, some of which were already leaning in that direction, and eliminated a divide between Washington and European capitals.
But Biden will impose strict limitations on the use of American weapons for fear of escalation with Russia, a nuclear-armed adversary, and where to draw the line will remain a point of contention within the Western alliance.
Biden also needs to do a better job persuading Europeans to shoulder more of the burden of defending Ukraine, diplomats said. Congress’s approval in April of a $61 billion aid package for kyiv, after a long delay, underscored the extent to which Ukraine’s (and Europe’s) security still depends on the United States.
“Europeans must understand that, absent greater effort on their part, there could be a significant US withdrawal from the alliance, particularly if Donald Trump returns to the White House in January,” said Peter Westmacott, who served as ambassador of Great Britain in the United States. , France and Türkiye.
“At some point, there will likely be negotiations to end the conflict,” Westmacott said. “My concern is that if Ukraine’s supporters don’t do more, and soon, that negotiation could end in surrender, which would only encourage Putin to try his luck even more.”
Russia has not been invited to the Swiss peace conference, leading other major powers such as China to reject the meeting. Biden’s absence will also diminish the possible results, although the White House has said it will send a delegation. Putin would give Biden a standing ovation if he didn’t show up, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
Zelensky’s frustration with Washington underscores the critical role of the United States in the alliance network. Strengthening those relationships has been a major priority of the Biden administration, and analysts said these summits would show the progress it had made, not only in Europe but also in Asia, where Japan and South Korea have moved closer to the United States.
Biden’s strong support for Israel in the Gaza war has opened a divide between the United States and some European countries. Ireland, Norway and Spain recently recognized a Palestinian state. But Britain, France and Germany have so far avoided a break with the United States, despite their countries’ tense domestic politics and growing unease with Israel’s conduct of the war.
For all his diplomatic efforts, some experts say, Biden’s emphasis on alliances has planted the seeds of future problems. He has made allies too dependent on the United States, which is why the specter of Trump will haunt meetings in France, Switzerland, Italy and the United States.
“The centerpiece of Biden’s strategy is alliances and allies; They are incredibly proud of it,” said Jeremy Shapiro, research director at the European Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. “Trump basically thinks allies are relatives who come to your house, borrow your money, and use your pool.”
“But the Biden administration has made the problem worse,” Shapiro said, “because they have created so much dependence on the United States at the very time that the world should not be dependent on it, because of Trump.”