With his military on the offensive in Ukraine and all forms of dissent inside Russia firmly repressed, President Vladimir V. Putin will take center stage this week at two major events that will showcase his dominance over the country’s politics and his determination to win. in Ukraine.
On Tuesday, Putin, 71, will formally begin his fifth term as Russia’s president in a highly choreographed inauguration ceremony in the Kremlin. On Thursday he will preside over the Victory Day parade in Red Square, an annual display of military might that over the past two years has sought to symbolically link Russia’s war in Ukraine with the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. .
The Kremlin is also expected to name a prime minister and five key ministers, including foreign affairs and defence, although officials in those six positions can simply be reappointed. The shape of the next Russian government will provide signals about the country’s direction in the coming years.
Putin won his fifth term in March in a formal election that Western nations dismissed as a farce. In any case, the ceremony will be triumphant and full of symbolism.
The country’s lawmakers, regional governors, religious leaders, high-ranking officials and other guests will wait for Putin to arrive at the Grand Kremlin Palace from the nearby Senate Palace, where the presidential office is located.
Putin will be transported in the new, upgraded version of his Russian-made limousine, state media reported, projecting the message that Russia is able to hold its own despite being largely isolated from Western markets.
When Putin enters, hundreds of Russian officials and guests will stand at the sides while the orchestra will play a ceremonial tune. Putin will read an oath in which he will swear to “respect and safeguard the rights and freedoms of man and citizen.” He will then give a short speech.
This time, the ceremony will likely include new elements highlighting that Russia is a country waging war in Ukraine. Among the guests will probably be soldiers and officers participating in it.
The inauguration will take place just two days before the annual Victory Day parade. Unlike last year, when Russia eagerly anticipated Ukraine’s counteroffensive, this year Putin will watch the parade of tanks and soldiers through Red Square in a much more emboldened state.
Since last fall, its troops have been on the offensive in Ukraine, constantly attacking depleted Ukrainian defenses. Over the past few weeks, Russia has been capturing village after village, threatening Ukraine’s logistical lines west of the town of Avdiivka.
The results of these advances have been on display in Moscow, where authorities have displayed Western-supplied weaponry captured in Ukraine: tanks (with their barrels bent downward to demonstrate defeat), armored vehicles and other equipment.
“Our victory is inevitable!” read one of the signs as people passed by taking photos of American Abrams and German Leopard tanks, howitzers and minesweepers. A message on a screen read: “Staff members of the US, German, French and Polish embassies can skip the line.”
Unlike pre-war parades, only leaders from a handful of former Soviet states and countries of limited international stature are expected to attend.
They include leaders from Laos in Asia, Guinea-Bissau in Africa and Cuba in the Americas. The former Soviet states of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Belarus, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan have confirmed their attendance.
Cabinet change
For the past few weeks, government officials and Kremlin observers have been guessing what Putin’s new cabinet and administration would look like. In a country where bureaucratic positions are often based on personal connections and loyalty, ministerial and other high-ranking positions in the Kremlin carry a lot of weight.
By law, the cabinet of ministers has to resign after Putin takes office. He will then have to nominate a candidate for the post of prime minister to the State Duma, the lower house of parliament, who will then nominate government ministers.
Several key ministers, including those responsible for defense and foreign policy, are nominated by Putin for approval by the Federation Council, the upper house of parliament.
There is no indication that Putin will replace Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin; Sergei K. Shoigu, Minister of Defense; or Sergei V. Lavrov, the Minister of Foreign Affairs. But there could be a surprise. Even keeping them would send a powerful message: that Putin believes he has a winning team and that the Kremlin is satisfied with Russia’s current progress in Ukraine and its international standing.