Nationalists are rising and are expected to make big gains when voters in 27 countries vote for the European Parliament starting this week. But the prospect of success is already raising the question among far-right parties of how much is too much.
That question has become pressing as popular far-right parties, especially in Italy and France, try to make themselves more acceptable to the mainstream, dividing those who have sanitized and gained acceptability from those who are still considered taboo.
Today, the far right is a movement plagued by fissures and shifting alliances.
Last year, Marine Le Pen, the French nationalist, appeared to disparage Italy’s far-right prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, who since coming to power has tried to become a reliable partner for traditional conservatives. “Meloni is not my twin sister,” she had told the Italian newspaper La Repubblica, making it clear that she considered herself tougher.
Now, Le Pen has offered to form an alliance in the European Parliament, although it is unclear whether Meloni wants to allow her to go ahead, as Le Pen’s party is still despised by many in the European heartland. good.
Le Pen, for her part, has distanced herself from the Alternative for Germany, or AfD, a far-right party that appears to have become too extreme even for her fellow travelers. In May, Le Pen and his group in the European Parliament, none of them shy of nationalism, expelled the AfD after one of its leaders made statements that appeared to justify the membership of some in the SS, the paramilitary force. Nazi.
“Throwing the AfD under the bus was a fantastic political gift” to Le Pen, said Jacob F. Kirkegaard, a political analyst in Brussels and senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a research organization. “She can position herself as ‘not far-right’.”
There is no doubt that nationalist parties across Europe have helped each other, as each success opens a path of acceptance for the others. As like-minded political actors, they converge on key issues shared across their borders, such as the protection of Christian traditions and family values, opposition to immigration, and criticism of the European Union.
But now, for the far right, it is a discussion about nuances of acceptability. It has proven to be a disorienting place for parties that, not long ago, were almost all considered unacceptable by the European establishment.
The erosion of that barrier was driven by the success of far-right parties and the adoption of parts of their agenda by traditional parties.
It has also presented a problem for mainstream Europe: which nationalist parties would it be willing to partner with if necessary?
Traditional parties “are moving the red line,” said Nicolai von Ondarza, a political scientist at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. “And where the red lines are drawn is important for who will form the majority in the European Parliament.”
That challenge is especially acute for Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, the EU’s top executive, who also heads parliament’s top conservatives.
As opinion polls predict that the left will shrink and the far right will win in the elections to be held from Thursday to Sunday, Von der Leyen has signaled that she could seek allies on the far right to gather enough votes to be approved for another term. . by Parliament. But such a move would risk alienating the center-left forces on which she has also depended and for whom any far-right party, including Meloni’s, is too extreme.
He has tried to be firm about who would be an acceptable partner, drawing a clear line between the far-right camp.
“It is very important to establish clear principles: who we want to work with,” he said in a recent election debate. Parties must be “pro-Europe,” “pro-Ukraine,” “anti-Putin” and “pro-rule of law,” she said.
Le Pen’s National Rally party, Alternative for Germany, and the Polish Confederation party “are friends of Putin and want to destroy our Europe,” von der Leyen said, dismissing them.
Ms. Meloni, he noted, falls on the acceptable side of this neckline. That may leave Meloni in a critical position after the election. The choice could be yours on where to stand.
Le Pen hopes an alliance with Meloni will allow the far right to become the second-largest force in the European Parliament, and Meloni has also said he wants to send the left into opposition.
But experts say teaming up with Le Pen could set back the Italian leader’s effort to expand her influence in Brussels and serve as a partner for traditional conservatives.
Although she has political roots in a neo-fascist party and wages cultural wars at home, Meloni has emerged as a pragmatic operator on the international stage, firmly aligned with European leadership on key issues such as supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia.
Le Pen finds herself in a more difficult situation. While Meloni leads one of the bloc’s founding nations, Le Pen remains marginalized in France, where her opponents still worry that she and her party threaten the values of the Republic.
Perhaps most importantly, Le Pen, along with some of her other far-right allies, have been much more ambiguous than Meloni on issues such as support for Ukraine.
While Le Pen and some senior party officials have condemned the large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, other party officials have been wrong. The party has repeatedly opposed sanctions on some Russian imports and rejected the possibility of Ukraine joining the European Union or NATO.
“The group would become intoxicated again,” said von Ondarza, becoming “an unacceptable partner for the center-right.”
AfD members in Germany have also been accused of having ties to Russia, and in Italy, Matteo Salvini, a Le Pen ally, recently referred to the election of President Vladimir V. Putin as a legitimate expression of Russian support. . the will of the people.
Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary, another prominent far-right figure, has embraced and emulated Putin, and continues to oppose sending weapons to Ukraine or imposing a ban on Russian oil imports.
Immigration is another issue that has exposed contradictions for nationalist parties in trying to forge an international alliance. While the parties broadly agree on their opposition to migration, their national interests clash at EU level.
Meloni supported legislation to distribute migrants from the border countries they arrive in (such as Italy and Greece) to other European Union nations. Nationalist leaders in countries further from the coast, such as Hungary’s Orban, were less interested in the idea.
“Isn’t it paradoxical that a nationalist party associates with parties on the other side of its borders?” asked Alberto Alemanno, a professor of European Union law at the HEC Paris business school, adding that these parties were “intrinsically incompatible.”
These divisions are not so new. As much as far-right parties have funded, applauded, embraced, imitated each other, and dreamed of creating a grand coalition of nationalist parties, they have also confronted and berated each other.
In 2014, Nigel Farage’s UK Independence Party, which helped lead Britain to Brexit, rejected a deal with Le Pen’s party, citing “prejudice and anti-Semitism.” Before offering an alliance, Le Pen accused Meloni of conspiring to help von der Leyen “contribute to aggravating policies that make the European people suffer.”
Still, for now, Meloni hasn’t ruled out any possibilities.
When asked if he would associate with far-right parties, he said he will not provide “certifications of presentability” to any party. “They gave them to me for life.”
Aurelien Breeden contributed reporting from Paris.