As Summer sweeps much of the country.Meteorological scientists have detected the first signs of a favorable monsoon season this year with the fading of El Niño conditions and less snow cover over Eurasia.
In an interview with PTI, India Meteorological Department Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said large-scale weather events were conducive to the southwest monsoon, which is crucial for India’s largely rain-based economy. .
“This year El Niño is fading. By early June, it may become a neutral condition,” Mohapatra said, referring to the warming of the central Pacific Ocean, which is considered one of the factors impacting the southwest monsoon.
He said the second half of the July-September monsoon season could see La Niña conditions, which refer to the cooling of the central Pacific Ocean.
“La Niña is good for the Indian monsoon. And neutral conditions are good. However, El Niño is not good. In 60 percent of the years, El Niño has had a negative impact on the Indian monsoon, but the year past did not.” have a negative impact,” Mohapatra said.
“This year also the snow cover is less. That is another positive factor. Therefore, large-scale processes favor the appearance of monsoons,” he said.
The southwest monsoon generates about 70 percent of India’s annual rainfall, critical for the agricultural sector that accounts for about 14 percent of GDP and employs more than half of its 1.4 billion people.
India received “below average” cumulative rainfall of 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm in the 2023 monsoon season, which was attributed to the strengthening El Nino.
The IMD will release the southwest monsoon forecast later this month.
He IM D considers three large-scale climate phenomena to forecast monsoon season rainfall.
The first is El Niño, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which occurs due to differential warming of the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean and the third is the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass. which also has an impact on the Indian monsoon through differential heating of the landmass.
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