India is expected to experience a “normal” monsoon between June and September this year, according to private weather forecasting agency Skymet, which on Tuesday said it monsoon Rainfall is expected to reach 102 percent of the long period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm for the four-month period.
From June to September there will be above normal rainfall in the central and western parts. There will be normal rainfall in the north and south and below normal rainfall in northeast India and the east, the meteorologist said.
The ‘Monsoon Forecast 2024’ report suggests that India will experience favorable rainfall in the southern, western and northwestern regions of India. Major rainfed monsoon zones such as Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh are expected to receive adequate rainfall.
However, eastern states including Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and West Bengal face the risk of rainfall deficit during the peak monsoon months, while northeast India may experience below-normal rainfall in the first half of the season. There will be above normal rainfall in Kerala, Konka, Karnataka and Goa, and normal rainfall in central areas, Skymet said.
“The significant transition from Super El Niño to strong La Niña has historically tended to produce a decent monsoon,” said Jatin Singh, MD, Skymet.
Singh said, “However, the monsoon season may begin with a risk of deterioration, attributable to the carryover effects of El Nino. The second half of the season will have an overwhelming advantage over the primary phase.”
The Skymet report highlights that apart from the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), other factors such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also influence the monsoon. The report suggests a positive IOD, which is expected to complement La Niña, improving prospects for a better monsoon.
The rapid transition from El Niño to La Niña is expected to disrupt the start of the season, while the distribution of precipitation throughout the season may be uneven.
Geographically, the report predicts favorable rain in the southern, western and northwestern regions of India. Major rainfed monsoon zones such as Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh are expected to receive adequate rainfall. However, eastern states including Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and West Bengal face the risk of rainfall deficit during the peak monsoon months, while northeast India may experience below-normal rainfall in the first half of the season.
According to the report, monsoon chances from June to September indicate a 10 percent chance of excessive rain, a 45 percent chance of normal rain, a 20 percent chance of above normal rain and a 15 percent chance of normal rain. percent chance of below-normal rain. normal precipitation and a 10 percent chance of drought conditions.
On a monthly basis, June is expected to receive 95 percent of the LPA, July 105 percent, August 98 percent and September 110 percent.
Despite the challenges posed by the transitioning climate conditions, the report predicts a normal monsoon season this year.
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