India is likely to experience above-normal cumulative rainfall in the 2024 monsoon season and La Niña conditions are likely to establish in August-September, the IMD has said on Monday.
However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee a uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall throughout the country, and climate change further increases the variability of the rain-bearing system. Climate scientists say The number of rainy days is decreasing, while heavy rain events (more rain in a short period) are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods.
Based on data between 1951 and 2023, India experienced above-normal rainfall in the monsoon season on nine occasions when La Niña followed an El Niño event, India Meteorological Department chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said at a news conference. here. India is likely to experience above-normal rainfall in the four-month monsoon season (June to September), with cumulative rainfall estimated at 106 percent of the long-period average (87 cm), he said.
Positive Indian Ocean Dipole Conditions They are forecast during the monsoon season. In addition, the snow cover in the northern hemisphere is low. These conditions are favorable for the southwest Indian monsoon, he said. Moderate El Niño conditions currently prevail. It is expected to turn neutral when the monsoon season begins. Thereafter, the models suggest, conditions at La Lina could be restored by August or September, Mohapatra said.
India received “below average” cumulative rainfall (820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm) in 2023, an El Niño year. Before 2023, India recorded “normal” and “above normal” rainfall in the monsoon season for four consecutive years.
El Niño conditions (periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean) are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.
Three large-scale climatic phenomena are considered to forecast monsoon season rainfall.
The first is El Niño, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which occurs due to differential warming of the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass. , which also has an impact on the Indian monsoon through differential heating of the landmass.
The southwest monsoon contributes about 70 percent of India’s annual rainfall, which is critical for the agricultural sector. Agriculture accounts for about 14 percent of the country’s GDP.
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